Description

This analysis provides a forecast of NEAR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 3.353474 3.875774 4.454934 5.145195 5.946108 6.846921 7.938095
2024-10-13 2.706951 3.399170 4.234017 5.316805 6.686920 8.366800 10.588961
2024-10-20 2.202370 2.971999 3.970547 5.365031 7.269087 9.788189 13.391154
2024-10-27 1.734344 2.494381 3.546455 5.115716 7.409326 10.658322 15.644498
2024-11-03 1.522903 2.322078 3.496144 5.357102 8.253976 12.626400 19.792975
2024-11-10 1.372584 2.207926 3.503957 5.676505 9.261180 14.999585 24.999130
2024-11-17 1.215107 2.052364 3.417752 5.827076 10.021039 17.109072 30.181111
2024-11-24 1.062733 1.877162 3.267537 5.839758 10.544343 18.905246 35.159913
2024-12-01 0.904245 1.663933 3.016363 5.629440 10.631446 19.943087 38.952497
2024-12-08 0.770194 1.472055 2.771095 5.384555 10.604441 20.752586 42.441378
2024-12-15 0.698973 1.385870 2.706026 5.468320 11.218447 22.880832 48.949403
2024-12-22 0.614309 1.260004 2.544978 5.333341 11.365150 24.090709 53.752770
2024-12-29 0.583921 1.242445 2.603386 5.675764 12.605994 27.869664 65.117268
2025-01-05 0.540386 1.190640 2.583676 5.849521 13.516999 31.115392 75.996304
2025-01-12 0.491331 1.119036 2.510526 5.892305 14.141445 33.837252 86.239285
2025-01-19 0.425659 0.999536 2.312473 5.611370 13.948630 34.598161 91.746826
2025-01-26 0.403860 0.978793 2.337825 5.872606 15.141380 38.991964 107.775350
2025-02-02 0.388671 0.971495 2.393876 6.220814 16.625311 44.423347 127.914592
2025-02-09 0.364370 0.937600 2.379315 6.384352 17.652353 48.849474 146.240327
2025-02-16 0.335106 0.886305 2.312659 6.397043 18.268186 52.268776 162.396366
2025-02-23 0.298242 0.809157 2.166694 6.165270 18.144662 53.558723 172.289384
2025-03-02 0.264338 0.734790 2.016745 5.895893 17.859540 54.316681 180.662217
2025-03-09 0.248053 0.707114 1.991240 5.987555 18.690972 58.648667 202.012075